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Table 3b. The Panel’s Framework for Assessing the Risk of Progression to Severe COVID-19 Based on Patient Conditions and COVID-19 Vaccination Status

Last Updated: August 8, 2022

Table 3b. The Panel’s Framework for Assessing the Risk of Progression to Severe COVID-19 Based on Patient Conditions and COVID-19 Vaccination Status
ConditionsRisk Level by Vaccination Statusa
UnvaccinatedPrimary SeriesUp to Date
Strong or Consistent Association With Progression to Severe COVID-19
High
  • Obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile for age), especially severe obesity (BMI ≥120% of 95th percentile for age)b
  • Medical complexity with dependence on respiratory technologyc
  • Severe neurologic, genetic, metabolic, or other disability that results in impaired airway clearance or limitations in self care or activities of daily living
  • Severe asthma or other severe chronic lung disease requiring ≥2 inhaled or ≥1 systemic medications daily
  • Severe congenital or acquired cardiac disease
  • Multiple moderate to severe chronic diseases
HighIntermediate
Moderate or Inconsistent Association With Progression to Severe COVID-19
  • Aged <1 year
  • Prematurity in children aged ≤2 years
  • Sickle cell disease
  • Diabetes mellitus (poorly controlled)
  • Nonsevere cardiac, neurologic, or metabolic diseased
Intermediate
Weak or Unknown Association With Progression to Severe COVID-19
  • Mild asthma
  • Overweight
  • Diabetes mellitus (well controlled)
Low